Archive for the ‘when will amazon release kindle 3’ tag
Happy Birthday Kindle 2 – Where is Kindle 3? 1 comment
Happy birthday Kindle 2! Amazon announced the Kindle 2 ereader on February 9, 2009, and began shipping it on February 24. It has already been a year since the Kindle 2 was released. Are we going to see Amazon release a new version of the 6-inch Kindle ereader this month? If not, when can we expect Kindle 3?
In the latter half of 2009 we had many rumors and announcements of new ereaders that would be unveiled at CES in January. Sony released its new family of ereaders and Barnes & Noble announced the nook, which promptly sold out in preorder.
At the time it seemed likely that Amazon would release Kindle 3 before the holidays because of all of the new competition. In retrospect (which like hindsight has that famous 20/20 vision) it would not have made much sense for Amazon to release a new ereader at that time. Instead the Kindle 2 was made available internationally. In addition Amazon improved the Kindle family’s feature set and has announced more feature upgrades to come. In retrospect this was probably the best and only course that Amazon could have taken.
Why do I say this? Because the technology needed to make a dramatically different and better Kindle was not yet in place. If Amazon had released a new ereader at the time it would have probably had only incremental improvements and therefore the firmware upgrades to the features of the existing models made much more strategic sense.
So now it has been a year since the Kindle 2 was released, and there is even more competition – including the iPad. Tech companies need to release new models at least once a year or they become obsolete, right? Well, if Amazon were to introduce a new Kindle now what new technology might it contain? And if they were to wait just a few more months would it make a big difference in what new tech they could put into a new ereader?
Endless Ideas has announced a new BeBook ereader – the Neo, which will be available on February 25. One of the new ereader’s features is a chipset by Freescale that Endless claims makes it 2 1/2 times faster than other ereaders already on the market. Marvell is also making faster chipsets to work with e-ink displays that promise page turns of 3 times faster than current ereaders.
Amazon bought a touchscreen technology startup last week. While we don’t know how long it will take to integrate this into any new Kindle design, let us assume that they could introduce a new Kindle 3 ereader within the next month or so that would include their newly acquired touchscreen tech.
So say that we have a new touchscreen Kindle ereader at the end of the month with a faster processor and probably an appearance upgrade as well as a few miscellaneous hardware and feature upgrades. A faster Kindle would mean faster page turns, easier menu navigation and library management, and would no doubt better handle the Kindle apps that Amazon has promised for later in the year. The appearance upgrade is important as well – especially after the nook.
No doubt about it – this would be a nice evolution of the Kindle. But what if Amazon were to wait a few months more? What other new ereader tech is coming in the near future?
Prime View International makes the e-ink displays used in the Kindles and most other ereaders at the moment. PVI is working on flexible e-ink screens using a plastic base rather than the current easy to crack glass-based displays. These new shatterproof e-ink displays should go into production towards the end of the 2nd quarter this year. In the beginning these flexible screens will no doubt be more expensive than the current screens, but with time they will become cheaper than glass displays to manufacture.
If you were to add a flexible display to the faster, better looking touchscreen Kindle 3 described above, then you are talking about a major advance. I don’t think that it would make sense for Amazon to introduce the next Kindle ereader before all of these features are available to go into it.
And what about color? This is probably the next new feature that gets the most hype. Right now there are at least three color display technologies on the way that Amazon could choose from:
- Qualcomm’s Mirasol – By all accounts Mirasol should go into production in the 3rd quarter, so it should just make it into ereaders in time for the holidays. The demos that I’ve seen so far look good, but seem to have a slightly metallic and sepia cast – although this may not be present when the technology is ready for market.
- Liquavista – Liquavista probably won’t be ready for market until the beginning of 2011, at least from what I have heard so far. Liquavista displays do look nice. This type of display reminds me of a comic book page; not the newer vividly colored comics, but the older ones with somewhat more muted colors.
- PVI is also working on color e-ink displays. Color e-ink might be ready in time for the holiday season, but most likely will not be ready until the beginning of next year.
Amazon could also conceivably use a Pixel Qi display to bring a color Kindle to market sooner, but Pixel Qi seems more suited to multifunction devices and I doubt that Amazon wants to get involved with that. On the other hand …
Is it possible that Amazon is planning to introduce a multifunction tablet-like device to compete directly with the iPad? My feeling is no, because I think that most long-form readers who buy and read the most books will want to do so on a reflective display such as e-ink. Amazon is, after all primarily in the business of selling content. But a Pixel Qi screen with its switchable modes would accommodate comfortable reading without eyestrain as well as the other functions one would expect from a multifunction device. In addition Amazon does have the sales figures for Kindle books going to iPhones, Kindle for PC, etc., so I think that it could possibly happen if they feel that the buyers of such a device would also be active ebook purchasers.
Okay, so time to get out the crystal ball and make some predictions. Making
predictions is always fun, especially for those who get to laugh at the predictor when all goes awry. So here goes.
Kindle 3 will be faster, look better and have a shatterproof touchscreen. I think that it will ship in July, or at least be announced around then. I also expect that Amazon may have a couple of different models of the smaller format Kindle, just as Sony has the Pocket Edition and the Touch Edition. Or possibly the current Kindle will continue to be sold at a lower price than the newer model and serve as a lower priced option. There is also a good chance for a Kindle for Kids with a shatterproof screen.
Color Kindles won’t arrive until the holidays or until after the beginning of next year, unless Amazon brings out a multifunction device with a Pixel Qi display. Not everyone will need a color ereader or want to pay the extra price for one, so the black and white models will not disappear.
Whatever happens, 2010 is becoming more and more interesting for ereaders and their users. All of the hardware competition will continue to drive innovation, which will be great for readers – as long as the publishers allow the ebooks to continue to be reasonably priced.
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